As the headline suggests, it’s gas prices. Although the United States is less reliant on foreign oil than it once was, the war in Iran could be a perfect storm for gas and energy prices in the U.S. and elsewhere to spike.

Iranian production of oil is severely disrupted, of course, with the U.S. and Israel attacking the country’s fuel infrastructure. But Iran itself isn’t that large a supplier of oil. Estimates vary from source to source, but it was something like the 6th to 8th largest producer in 2024, extracting 4 to 5 percent of the world’s oil.

However, there are two other problems downstream from cutting off Iranian production. One is that Iran has retaliated by attacking oil production facilities in other Gulf States. The other is that the Strait of Hormuz is essentially shut down to shipping traffic. Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain, combined with Iran, collectively provide about 30 percent of the world’s oil.